Weekly Market Outlook: Nifty showed signs of recession; Stay defensive between resistance near 25,650

The Nifty continued its corrective magic for the sixth straight week, not seen a losing line in five years, as the index decreased within the relatively narrow range. In the week, the Nifty saw oscillation in the 398-point range between 24,736 and bottom of the bottom of 24,337, which reflects silence volatility and lack of directional punishment.

India Wicks increased marginally from 0.48% to 12.03, indicating that the emotion remains calm despite prolonged weakness. From the closure of the week, the index ended with net loss of 202.05 points, or (-0.82%).

We have a small week ahead, Friday is a business holiday due to Independence Day. The index structure remains weak in the near period. The 25,650 has a recent peak at a lower top, which matches with a confluence of two important patterns resistance – from a falling trendline drawn from a height of one earlier, and another from the upper range of a wider consolidation channel. This area now serves as a strong supply area.

The market is still trading below this resistance cluster, with a sloping slope in the short -term average. Any meaningful will require a decisive breakout over this confluence; In contrast, continuous trade below 24,200, which is a moving average of 50-week, can accelerate the corrective leg.

As we go in the new week, the Nifty is likely to see a soft or alert start. Tatkal resistance levels are placed at 24,500 and 24,850, while support comes at 24,200 and 23,950.
The weekly RSI is at 49.50. It has formed a new 14-term low, which is recession, but remains neutral without any deviation against the price. The weekly Macd has shown a negative crossover; It is now a recession and trades under its signal line.
Pattern analysis suggests that the Nifty is still honoring the downward-sloping resistance line from the previous top, aligning with low-high formation near 25,650. The index is hovering below the moving average (24,496) of 20-week, and any violation of an average of 50-week at 24,203 can invite deep deduction, which can weaken the index weakened with the current levels. Despite several efforts, the inability to clean the confluence resistance highlights the pressure of the supply.
Looking at the current setup, traders should remain defensive in their views. The fresh aggressive long should be avoided until the index breaks up 25,000–25,100 zone on strong versions. Short-term players can adopt a highly selective, stock-specific approach with strict stop-loss to protect capital. For now, it is a preferred strategy to protect the profit and manage exposure in a judicious manner as the market continues to consolidate with bottom bottom.

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