How did you see the whole week? Yes, we had to face a lot of challenges. It was a difficult week in which a lot of news flows were coming from the global markets. It was difficult to digest. But one thing I would say – Indian markets now behave quite mature, and we are seeing a rational approach.
Mayuresh joshi: Oh yes, it was a roller-coaster week-one of the most wild rides you will experience in any water park! Especially around Trump’s tariff, the events that took place, they currently led to the improvement that we are currently seeing.
However, the market response has been quite mature, as you have correctly stated. There is no panic or sudden sale. A large part of this flexibility is due to strong domestic flow. The Indian retail investor seems to have detected secret chutney – being invested for long periods. In such a time, instead of exiting, if you continue your systematic investment, they will achieve results over time. So yes, while Trump Tariffs took the center stage this week, the markets have responded very maturity.
There is a lot in both global and domestic markets. Tariff tremors continue, and uncertainty persist. On the domestic front, the first half of earnings was not very good, but the second half is showing a promise. FII has not returned yet, so a clear direction for the domestic market is missing.
Do you see the upcoming festive season as a ray of hope – especially for consumption, auto, hotel, tourism, etc., with festivals with festivals?
Mayuresh joshi: Oh yes, it is hopeful. Both urban and rural consumption are expected to have a strong return to the second half. For urban India, tax deduction is a booster. For rural India, better monsoon and high farm prices for cash crops lead to better feeling and income.
As a result, it is expected to be taken significantly in consumption. This is a leg of GDP development. The second investment is – the government Capex is moving at a fast pace and shows the initial signs of revival to private Capex. Third leg, FDI and Stuck The flow, currently lagging behind – is mainly due to global uncertainties such as Trump’s tariff policies and weak earnings. However, if the earnings start reviving and the tariff noise settles in the next 3-6 months, I do not see why FDI and FPI will not return. India, in a global context, is still a domestic powered consumption economy. So even though investors are really real, I believe they will return to H2. Any non-structural market reforms should be seen as a purchase opportunity-especially in quality areas and stock with leadership and earning visibility.
This week was another important economic phenomenon reserve Bank of IndiaCredit policy of. While the rates were left unchanged, the governor repeated support for development.
Given the current inflation approach, do you think RBI has space to cut rates? The next policy is scheduled to be held in October. What can be a festive surprise as a rate cut?
Mayuresh joshi: This is definitely a possibility. The 25-BPS rate is expected to be cut, possibly in the next policy or after.
The approach depends on how global events occur. Will Fed be in September? What will be the inflation effect of Trump’s policies – not only in America, but globally? How will he interact with India, China and other BRICS countries?
So yes, the 25-BPS deduction is very high in the October policy before the festive season. Let’s see how the RBI navigates.
Given how difficult markets are, investors are uncertain about when to enter. They estimate the dowtrand, but do not know where the lie below is. If someone wants to invest now, what should be their strategy? Imagine that I give you an empty canvas – how will you paint it?
Mayuresh joshi: Honestly, no one can predict below. As our late founder often said, “I have never seen a successful pessimist.”
So I am very optimistic about India in the next 5-10 years. It is still a fundamentally domestic -powered development story.
Despite Trump’s policies, some hospital stocks in healthcare may continue to perform well. So you can select pharma names-because it is not possible to manufacture cost-effectively in the US.
The names of apparel and consumption also look attractive, especially domestic-focused value apparel brands, which may benefit from rural and urban consumption recovery. FMCG is ready for a strong return. Agrochemical stocks can also see improvement in operating leverage due to strong monsoon and volume growth. Financials will also play an important role – because private capex returns will support financial comprehensive ecosystem.
So yes, focus on domestic stories – consumption, financial, select auto, and agrochemicals. These areas are untouched by global noise such as trump tariffs and solid income visibility. Do not move with reforms. Instead, consider them as opportunities to enter shares that you can remember first.
Is there any special area that you are centered right now – and you are escaping from any person?
Mayuresh joshi: Within healthcare, I am positive on the hospital section. The number has been stable and expected to remain strong. These companies have adopted both Brownfield and Greenfield – smart expansion strategies – which keeps the balance sheet leverage low. Average revenue in the operating bed is improving, which increases the capacity of income.
On the other hand, I am alert on it. There are still many headwinds in the region. A few decades ago looked like a bright beacon, now it requires reinforcement. Globally-Chinese companies have growing competition through AI-based platforms. The AI Buzzword is becoming – whether it is generic AI, agent AI, or agile AI.
Indian IT companies need significant investment to stay relevant. Labor Cost Benefits He had once enjoyed, decreasing as AI-operated model is better performing than inheritance models. As long as IT companies are ready and make strategies again, I am making a perimeter. So for now, I am escaping from the sector.