Why did Trump-Putin not likely to bring a rapid end in Ukraine War

Vitali shavechenko

BBC Monitoring Russia Editor

EPA, a woman wearing a red jumper and holding her phone, overtakes a residential building in Kiev on 21 July.EPA

At the behest of Trump, a three -round conversation between Russia and Ukraine has failed to bring both sides closer to peace.

The war in Ukraine, which arises from the full scale invasion of Russia in February 2022, shows no indication of abetting.

East of Ukraine, Russia presses in a piece and bloody advance. The malignant aerial attack is an one -night phenomenon across the country, while Russia’s refineries and energy facilities come under regular attack from the drone of the Kiev.

It is against this background that Kremlin confirmed a meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin and was being planned soon. The US leader said on Wednesday, “I am with (war) here.”

At its behest between May and July, a three -round conversation between Russia and Ukraine has failed to bring the two sides closer to peace, and Trump may be hopeful that taking the situation into his own hands may eventually lead to a ceasefire.

But the Gulf between Kiev and Moscow is so large that the trump-mediation talks can even make it difficult to bridge.

In a memorandum submitted by Russia to Ukrainian in June, Moscow underlined its maximum demands for the “final disposal” of the struggle. These include Crimea, Donettsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhjia and Kherson as well as recognition of Russian sovereignty in Ukraine’s Ukraine regions, as well as Ukraine agreed to demonetisation, neutrality, no foreign military participation and new elections.

Getty image firefighters and rescuers throw through the debris of a destroyed buildingGetty images

Firefighting and rescue teams last week on a residential building in Kiev through debris after a Russian cruise missile attack

Russian political analyst Tatiana Stanovaya wrote, “The Russian side can frame it in a dozen different ways, which gives a feeling that Moscow is open to concession and serious interactions.” “But the main condition remains unchanged: Russia wants Kiev to surrender.”

After a meeting between Putin and American envoy Steve Witcoff, US State Secretary Marco Rubio said on Wednesday that Washington had a better understanding of the circumstances under which the Russia would be designed to end the war.

We do not know if those conditions have changed. However, only the Putin – possibly referring to the memorandum last week – Russia found its goals in June, and that they were the same goals.

Therefore, despite agreeing to the Kremlin Trump-Putin meeting, there is no reason to believe that Moscow is ready to move on its hard pre-conditions.

So why would Putin agree to talk at this level?

One possibility that it is expected to engage in dialogue Secondary ban Trump has threatened to impose Moscow’s business partners As Friday. The Kremlin may also feel that it can tell Trump about the qualities of its terms to end the war.

Getty Image Trump and Putin shaking hands in front of a lecture reading "Helsinki"American and Russian flags are in the backgroundGetty images

Trump’s comments were shocked after his meeting with Putin in Helsinki in 2018

At the beginning of his second term in the office, Trump appeared to be more aligned with Russia than Ukraine, termed Zelancesi as “dictator” and suggested that he was convicted of war with Russia.

Although he has since indicated his impatience with Putin – “He is just exploiting me”, he said in April – Trump also refused to say if he felt that the Russian leader was lying to his readiness to move towards a ceasefire.

Whether due to personal affinity or a alignment world vision, Trump has been reluctant to completely condemn Putin for his actions.

When both met in Helsinki in 2018 – during the first term of Trump as President – there were many In 2016 US election, Russian medaling allegations were shocked to see Trump with Kremlin And take responsibility for the stressful situation of US-Russia relations.

This is probably partly Putin’s possibility of removing Trump’s possibility that Kiv wants to join any ceasefire talks.

Through his envoy Steve Vitcoff, Trump has also suggested to organize a tripartite with Putin and Zelancesi. But the Russian President has batted on these suggestions, saying that the conditions for a meeting are still far away.

Now some people in Ukraine are worried that a trump-paint may result in the demands of US President Putin as a result of a meeting.

Ukrainian MP Irina Herushchenko said that it was clear that regional concessions would be sought and added by Ukraine, being absent from the conversation table would be “very dangerous” for the kiv.

“Ukraine is not afraid of meetings and expects the same bold approach from the Russian side,” Zelancesi said on Thursday.

But the bay between Russia and Ukraine remains.

And whether Kremlin should eventually agree to a tripartite meeting, Moscow’s demands for a ceasefire have proved so unbreakable that it is not clear what Zelanski and Putin can bring face to face.

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