Bihar sir electoral roll analysis on high voter deletion in Muslim-Bahul districts

On August 1, after the completion of the electoral roll for Bihar, after completion Special intensive amendment (sir) Exercises were issued. A total of 7.24 crore voters are part of the latest electoral rolls – more than 56 lakh voters compared to the roles prepared in January this year. According to the Election Commission of India, the voters who are not part of the August list, have died, or are registered at two places, or permanently moved out of Bihar, or are unattainable.

A district-wise analysis of August electoral rolls shows that the districts with large Muslim population (2011 census) had a greater number of deletion from rolls.

Below chart Plots the difference in the number of voters in August roll compared to the January roll on the horizontal axis. On the vertical axis, we have conspired to share the Muslim population of the districts.

In short, we have hatched a Muslim population conspiracy against the deletion in the head. The chart shows a moderate positive correlation (Pierce’s Correlation R), showing that high -Muslim population districts usually saw more deletion. But confirming whether Muslims were unevenly removed in the revised roll call for more grain analysis.

On the other hand, the Scheduled Castes (SC) population is a negative correlation in change in voters as compared to the part of the district. Namely, districts with high SC population consist of low number of deletion. However, the first note of caution also applies to this case. Below chart Plots the difference in the number of voters on the horizontal axis and part of the SC population district.

A district-wise analysis of the August electoral roll also shows that, in general, the higher the possible number of out-magrains from a district is the number of deletion from the roll. This confirms one of the causes of ECI’s deletion-out-magration.

We used women voting relative to voters in 2024 Lok Sabha elections as a proxy to measure district-wise out-migration in Bihar. We did this because in 2024, Bihar stood out among the states which had a female-to-male voter ratio at a low-to-female-to-male voter ratio. chart Female-to-men reflects the proportion of female voters for men against the ratio of voters (voting).

This means that in Bihar, more women left to vote in full numbers than men, even though there were more registered male voters. Although other factors may explain this gender variation, the difference suggests that despite being registered, fewer men were available to vote. Historically, Bihar is one of the largest sources of out-migration, which can explain the lower male voting.

The bottom chart plots the district-wise ‘out-migration index’ on vertical axis. This compares the share of women among all voters (male plus female) among all voters in the 2020 elections. A positive value indicates that more female voters go out to vote compared to men despite high male voter registration numbers. This is what we use as a proxy for high out-migration. The chart also plots the difference in the number of voters on the horizontal axis. In short, we conspiracy to migrate out against the deletion in SIR.

Note: The out-migration index for this chart was calculated using 2020 pole data as gender-wise voting was not available in assembly seats in 2024.

The trend line suggests that a moderate positive correlation (R) is 0.40). This means that in high-migrated districts, voters find more deletion. However, this does not mean that the deletion is fine with gender lines, so that male migrants are removed from the roll. In the latter data point, we will check further deletion in the light of these findings.

Source: Election Commission of India, 2011 Census

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